Papi's Plight?

From ESPN.com's Page 2 article on the future Heroes of baseball as they are today...the excerpt about David Ortiz is as follows (thanks to La for sending this):

DAVID ORTIZ, DH, BOSTON RED SOX

It's very unlikely he has enough time left to rack up Hall of Fame numbers. His big jump happened at age 27. The last four years have been tremendous, but he's due to drop off sooner rather than later, and his totals (240 home runs and 800 RBIs as we speak) seem a long way from plaque-worthy. And all I can think is: Who cares? Seriously, when the grandparents gather the little ones at their knees in the years to come, isn't Big Papi -- his wide smile shining and his high flourish follow-through flying -- the first guy they will recall from this era? Isn't he the one who sums up the joy and the drama and the power and the glory of the game they love? Isn't he the guy, more than any other, who makes them say, "Man, you shoulda seen him?"

Ok, I agree with the latter part of this rant, in that, I will surely be telling my grandchildren about the man, the myth, the legend: David Ortiz. I think this generation of Red Sox fans think this unanimously and how can you not. But I don't agree that his eventual drop off will be soon nor significant enough from a pure, offensive production standpoint to keep him from putting up Hall-like numbers. Here's why.

1. He hits in a lineup that features him and Manny Ramirez sitting right behind him at the cleanup slot. With men on base, no pitcher in baseball could possibly justify walking Ortiz to pitch to Manny. It's a catch-22 in its purest form. Not to mention the rest of the lineup that, offensively, is not that far behind the Yankee lineup on paper. I say on paper because this year, the Sox offense has outshined the Yanks'. But it's May and the Yankees will hit eventually (see last night and two nights ago). But again, if Ortiz is hitting for the Sox and Manny is too, he will continue to produce at a similar rate to that which we are now accustomed to and expecting. He's going to hit 40-50 home runs and knock in 110-140 every year that he's healthy. People are going to argue that Manny isn't the player he used to be, but I don't agree with that either. But that's another blog for another time (or one I've already written...see previous posts).

2. The Sox have shown the ability and willingness to spend the money on a supporting cast that is amongst the best in baseball every year. They are not going to skimp on free agent signings and will therefore keep this sort of potent lineup around Ortiz for years to come. And with a bunch of guys around who can hit .300 and get on base for him, Ortiz will undoubtedly keep producing.

3. Ortiz, while a massively impressive power guy, is a great hitter to boot. He's not the kind of guy that swings at junk and strikes out on a frequent basis. He's patient at the plate and doesn't have to drive it out of the park to knock in runs. He hits to all fields with power and has a great eye. Again, hugely important for being a consistent producer.

4. Maybe the most important one...let's not forget that we're talking about the greatest clutch hitter in the history of baseball, along with Reggie Jackson. Say what you will, but I would take Ortiz when it counts over anybody. He always gets it done when it matters; when it's do or die. He doesn't squander opportunities to be productive when the Sox need a run or two and by continuing to be this kind of player, he numbers will be going up for a while.

Barry Bonds is 40 years old or so and he's still an extremely dangerous hitter who, like Ortiz, hits for average and sees the ball better than most. Set aside the whole steroid clause for a minute. Ortiz and Bonds are similar in that kind of regard, in that, they're just great hitters and always will be. Five, ten and maybe fifteen years from now, Ortiz will be older and probably a little weaker but he will still be a great hitter and thus, still producing. Let's see, 240 HRs and 800 RBI...he's going to finish his career somewhere in the vicinity of 600 HRs, 2000 RBIs, 2500+ hits and around a .300 average. Being the kind of person/man that he is and what he has done the Red Sox organization, Ortiz fits the Hall of Fame mold. If he can manage an MVP or two along the way and another ring, I think his large head should fit nicely onto one of those plaques.